At Probable Futures, we make climate science accessible and useful. Our easy-to-use climate risk tools were intentionally designed to support incorporation of climate data into daily tasks and decision-making.
For example, Kontur, a geospatial mapping organization working on disaster response, wanted to strengthen their publicly available Disaster Ninja tool with nighttime temperature projections to allow users to identify places facing an increasing risk of nighttime heat waves, which are critical health hazards. To build this layer, Kontur applied Probable Futures’ “Nights above 25°C (77°F)” map data to its own maps of densely populated urban areas. The result is a “Nighttime Heatwave Risk” layer, which allows humanitarian workers to identify communities facing heat risks and develop response plans.
With a similar focus on public health and wellbeing, the Pandemic Tracking Collective (partnered with the Rockefeller Foundation’s Pandemic Prevention Institute) began integrating climate data into its work streams in 2022. Data scientist Jonathan Gilmour and data quality lead Michal Mart utilized Probable Futures Pro, to overlay climate data with publicly available health data relevant to infectious disease. Mart investigated how different warming scenarios would impact the spread of Lyme disease-carrying deer ticks, who prefer temperatures over 45°F. Gilmour used the Pro tool to examine how vulnerability to mosquito-borne illnesses in the tropics and subtropics (where the highest rates of mosquito-borne illnesses can be found) might increase alongside heat and humidity conditions. Both of these tools help anticipate upcoming health hazards and plan for them as the climate crisis continues to loom large.