Overview
This unit provides a comprehensive introduction to building and analyzing deterministic epidemiological models, with a focus on the 2016 Zika virus epidemic that affected Latin America and the Caribbean and was designated a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) by the World Health Organization.
Building upon foundational epidemic theory, you will develop a deterministic SIR-type model incorporating demographic factors to examine the interconnected dynamics of human-vector disease transmission. Through structured analysis of the relationships governing these interactions, you will translate conceptual disease dynamics into mathematical equations that form the foundation for computational simulation and analysis using the R programming language.
The unit emphasizes practical applications of key epidemiological concepts, including SIR model frameworks, herd immunity thresholds, and evidence-based control measures such as vector fumigation, insecticide-treated bed nets, and vaccination programs. Through case study analysis and model development, you will gain the quantitative skills necessary to assess epidemic impact and systematically compare intervention strategies to inform public health decision-making.
- Recognize how a simple deterministic model is built using ordinary differential equations.
- Identify relevant parameters for modeling vector-borne disease (VBD) epidemics.
- Learn how to create a diagram for a compartmental model
- Translate mathematical equations for a deterministic model into R code.
- Use model simulations to explore transmission scenarios and the potential impact of interventions.
Do you have feedback on this resource?
Thank you for your feedback as we strive to curate and publish resources to help social impact organizations succeed with data.
Related Resources
How to apply an intersectional and IDEA lens to your data practice
Despite good intentions, data is sometimes collected, analyzed, and used in ways that can replicate or even amplify existing injustices and inequalities.
How to prioritize efforts when strengthening an organization’s data maturity
This guide aims to help organizations develop objectives and prioritize efforts when becoming more data mature.
How to align data collection to an organization or project’s overall mission
Learn how to design a logic model to ensure your data collection is intentional, optimized, and aligned with your mission.